The Bitcoin Rat

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Monthly Archives: December 2015

Dear Mr Williams – Have a happy 2016

So, it is now 18 months since my last post on the “bitcoin expert” Prof. Mark Williams of Boston Uni.

As I pointed out in an early blog posting on Mr Williams his own bloging habits, up until December 2013,  was bloging at around 5 articles a month  – and didnt write on bitcoin until the 5th December 2013.  But from then on, until april 2014 he was posting around 25 articles a month on his Boston University Blog  , all critical of bitcoin.

However , since he was humiliated by his ‘bitcoin will trade for $10 or less by mid 2014’ prediction falling flat on its face, his public pronouncements on bitcoin have almost disappeared.

One of them however was an interview with Vice News June 27th 2014 on the Silk Road sell off auction where he was quoted thus –

“Those interested in bidding are the same close-knit group of buyers. They are inherently bullish on an unproven e-currency and technology,” According to Williams, only a few buyers control a majority of the bitcoin market, thus the cryptocurrency is not a deeply traded or liquid commodity. He said the auction process will make this glaringly obvious.”It is simply a speculative bet not entered by new buyers, but by the same market promoters,” Williams said.

apart from a few references to some old quotes from Williams in mid 2014,  from the end of 2014 he has kept a remarkably low bitcoin profile in the Media right through 2015.

However, he couldn’t help himself still trying to justify his failed  “$10 or less” valuation prediction.

In a report on his comments to bloomberg in May 2015 he was quoted as saying –

There’s always a risk that bitcoin can go from its current value to being virtually worthless. We’ve already seen a drop of more than 75 percent since its November 2013 market high. That price risk hasn’t declined, which is a problem. If a currency can fluctuate by 10 or 20 percent in a given day, then there’s less incentive to own or use it. When you have these extreme price movements, it also reduces the number of merchants willing to take such extreme market risk.

Banging the “virtually worthless” gong again !

How long Williams can keep his head high is an interesting question. 2015 was a very good year for bitcoin, as it finished the year with a YoY gain of nearly 75%, will good steady rises through the year.  This was particularly true when compared to both commodities and all international currencies – see charts below – ( bitcoin even well outperformed the Dollars strong global rise in 2015 )

 

commodities v bitcoin

more significantly , and probably to Mr Williams horror, the volume of bitcoin transactions on the blockchain in 2015 increased by 136%

This is an indication of the true growth of interest in bitcoin  –  and certainly can not be due to “only a few buyers controlling the bitcoin market” as Mr Williams told Vice news in June 2014.

Here’s the graph of the transaction volume in 2015 – 86,038 in Dec 2014 to 202,869 in Dec 2015

bitcoin growth 2015

So,    HAPPY NEW YEAR MR WILLIAMS , and as 2016 looks all set to be another good year for bitcoin, I doubt we will be hearing much from you in the next 12 months ( or maybe you will have the integrity to swallow your pride as say .. “I was wrong”)

just saying ….

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